When I started writing this article at 10 am GMT on Thursday, February 6, 2020, according to data from worldmeters.com, it is estimated that there are 7,762,571,088 people on the planet. This indicator is recognized as the most accurate indicator currently available. .
source:
Static indicator used under free license from Worldmeters.com
And when you read this article, this number has increased significantly.
However, it is still possible for each of these souls to own an entire U.S. dollar, our accepted global storage currency, and even so, there will be trillions of dollars remaining. In fact, when you compare the price of U.S. Treasuries with the population, you will find a shocking fact that the printing speed of the US dollar is much faster than the population growth rate. In fact, this is the same for any currency in the world, not just the US dollar, but with the exception of Bitcoin.
“Simple” math
It is impossible for everyone on the planet to own a Bitcoin. From its creation in 2009 to the end of the mining cycle in 2140, the total number of bitcoins was 21 million. As of today, 18.203 million bitcoins have been mined, accounting for about 86.681% of the total mining volume. In the next 120 years, the remaining 2.797 million will be more difficult to dig.
At the simplest level, using these two numbers (current population and currently available bitcoins), we can infer that if bitcoins are evenly distributed to everyone on the planet, everyone will get 0.00234497 bitcoins . Or put another way, 234,497 satoshis.
Just as we exchanged cents for part of the dollar, we exchanged Satoshis for part of the bitcoin. The reality of the future is that most of us will only use satoshis for transactions, and only a very small number of people or very wealthy people will use Bitcoin for transactions, because the value of Bitcoin is too high.
At today’s price, which is approximately US$9631 per bitcoin at the time of writing, buying this amount of bitcoin would cost US$22.58. In other words, mathematically speaking, for just $23, you can guarantee that you have more Bitcoin than the average person on the planet can have.
This is an amazing idea.
However, it is also a simplification, deliberately excluding many other factors, therefore, for a real number, we need to study more deeply.
“Not so simple” math
The above numbers are “locked” at the current position. Yes, there are still 2.797 million bitcoins to be mined, but in the next 120 years, there will be more people on earth.
People’s predictions of the global population in 2140 vary, which is understandable. However, assuming we did not blow ourselves up, or find other clever ways to wipe out humans from the earth, we should expect this number to reach 12 billion by then.
Once again, using simple mathematical calculations, suppose you bought bitcoins for your great-grandson and all the remaining bitcoins are successfully mined, you need 0.00175 bitcoins (equivalent to today’s 16.85 US dollars) to be safe.
Although this number seems low, there are some additional factors to consider.
First, a considerable amount of Bitcoin may have been lost and cannot be retrieved.
This seems unbelievable considering the value of Bitcoin. But the fact is that in the early days when Bitcoin was of little value and could be easily obtained, people did a little bit of excavation. After accumulating hundreds of thousands, they forgot their private keys and it was really difficult to recover them.
For example, British IT worker James Howell mined 7,500 bitcoins earlier and accidentally threw away the hard drive storing the keys. This hard drive is currently being placed in a landfill in Wales. Howell tried to obtain permission from the Parliament to dig it, but failed.
Howell’s story is not uncommon. The Internet is full of people who confessed that they lost Bitcoin in their early years. In fact, this situation is still happening today, although considering the current value, the relevant amount is of course much smaller.
There are many estimates and methods for estimating lost Bitcoin, because it is not an exact science. These lost bitcoins will always be visible on the blockchain, but they will never be obtained. And there is no way to know which is which.
One of my favorite methods recently is to study bitcoins that have not been in circulation for a long time. It is estimated that 3 million to 3.8 million bitcoins are lost or locked. At about the same time, chain analysis also gave a similar estimate, that is, using a combination of multiple methods, there are about 4 million. So this range seems to be correct.
Therefore, in order to ensure that we can own, or slightly exceed the average wealth that a person can have in the future, we need to adjust the numbers slightly.
It is prudent to choose a lower number of lost coins rather than a higher number, as this will allow us to get the most coins. If it turns out that the availability is worse, we still have a number to guarantee that we are still above the overall average.
After adjusting these figures accordingly, we now need 0.0023188 to ensure that we get the lowest average amount, which is a value of $22.33.
The second issue to consider is the “whale”. Bitcoin refers to an individual or organization that owns a large amount of Bitcoin, because every time they buy or sell Bitcoin, it makes a huge wave in the market. It is estimated that about 5 million bitcoins are owned by 1,600 whales, many of them are early adopters.
However, while this is often cited as a liquidity issue, it is not as complicated as it seems. For now, Bitcoin still has a lot of availability. Even if a halving event will occur in a few months, the new Bitcoin supply will be reduced by 50%, but in terms of retail amount, it is still relatively easy to obtain Bitcoin.
This will not always be the case in the future. If it is still out of circulation, these reserves will inevitably enter the market as the value rises.
in conclusion
So, is it worth it to convert part of your hard-earned fiat currency into Bitcoin? Considering the above figures, how much money can guarantee you at least the average amount you can get?
Regarding the second part of this question, even after making some assumptions about what we now know, we can be very specific.
No matter how you cut this number, you need to be between 0.00175000 and 0.0023188 to ensure that you have at least the average number of people on the planet. Calculated at today’s price, the price is between 16.85 US dollars and 22.33 US dollars.
To be safe and increase a little profit, I choose 0.0025 which is a good integer, which is easier to remember, which is 24 dollars.
This brings us back to the first part of the question-is it worth doing?
I don’t know when we start to measure small expenditures that are worth doing, but now this is definitely a “thing” worth doing. In this spirit, I can be sure that this money can buy 6 glasses of lattes or two and a half glasses of beer in New York.
But whether you like coffee, beer, or other drinks, on the whole, it’s not a lot of money. Is it worth it to give up a few days of coffee or go around a bar in exchange for a small amount of goods designed to be the scarcest in the world?
Only you can answer this question, after all I am just a stranger showing some numbers on the Internet.
I may seriously underestimate how much you love coffee and beer.
