◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
The cryptocurrency market, which has been shaky due to China’s total closure of cryptocurrency mining, is rebounding. Bitcoin price fell to $31,781 during the morning of the same day based on CoinMarketCap, recording the lowest level since the 9th, but it turned upward as low-priced purchases flowed in.
According to Reuters, the Chinese government completely shut down cryptocurrency mining farms is believed to be the direct cause of the bitcoin price drop yesterday. Starting with the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China has closed mining farms in Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, and the last remaining Sichuan province the day before. According to the Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF) at the University of Cambridge, China accounted for 65% of global bitcoin mining last year. Some experts predicted that China’s mining ban will have a negative impact on the market by inducing miners to liquidate their cryptocurrency holdings in the future.
As of 14:00 on the 22nd, Bitcoin (BTC), the No. 1 cryptocurrency by coin market cap, has a market capitalization of $ 32,939.78, a 24-hour trading volume of about $ 56.9 billion, and a market cap of about $ 617.3 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $1.3302 trillion, with a Bitcoin market cap share of 46.4% and an Ethereum market cap share of 17.2%. At this time, Ethereum (ETH) is rising 4.30%, Dogecoin (DOGE, +14.10%), Theta Token (THETA, +9.08%), Chiliz (CHZ, 9.27%), Decentraland (MANA, 8.31%), Curve (CRV, +7.33%), and Stellar (XLM, +7.28%), most of the top altcoins by market capitalization are on the rise.
Last night, the US stock market rebounded on the market sentiment that last Friday’s plunge was excessive, although members of the US Federal Reserve once again voiced hawkish voices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average of the New York Stock Exchange on the 21st (local time) rose 586.89 points (1.76%) from the previous trading day to 33876.97, the S&P 500 index rose 58.34 points (1.40%), 4,224.79, centered on technology stocks. The Nasdaq indices rose 111.10 points, or 0.79%, to close at 14,141.48, respectively. Cyclical stocks that led the decline last week, such as energy, aviation, travel and finance, all rebounded. The shock wave from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) regular meeting, which ended on the 16th, when it advanced its forecast for interest rate hikes to ‘twice in 2023’, seems to have been almost fully absorbed by the market, and investors are expected to see faster-than-expected high growth and high inflation. There is an optimistic view that there is a high possibility of supporting the overall market.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 4.26% from the previous day, and the market capitalization excluding bitcoin increased by 4.45% from the previous day, indicating that altcoins are stronger than bitcoin, and the market capitalization of bitcoin increased by 4.04% compared to the previous day, bitcoin The share of altcoins decreased by 0.25% from the previous day, indicating that the average increase rate of altcoins is higher than that of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which had fallen after opening, turned bullish in about 30 minutes and surged, and then it is analyzed that the upward trend is expanding as the buying force is evenly flowing into most stocks. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including Bitcoin, +5.33%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding Bitcoin, +5.84%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, +5.19%, index centered on medium-sized stocks WMC, which is a +5.87%, WSC, a small stock index, recorded +4.76%.
As of 14:00 on the 22nd, the cumulative buy/sell volume ratio of major cryptocurrency exchanges in the past 24 hours was 51%:49%, indicating that the buying trend was strong, and the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also analyzed to be strong. . (See Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of Bitcoin futures is around -8.5 in backwardation, and the basis of Ethereum futures is around +3.00, maintaining contango. The price of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is rising. Futures July waters traded at $32,950.0, up $390.0 (+1.20%) from the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency price status <strong>
Based on Upbit at 14:00 on the 22nd, the cryptocurrency price is rising. Domestic Bitcoin (BTC) price is 38.5 million won, up 2.96% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2.3 million won, up 3.13%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
At the same time, in the global cryptocurrency market based on CoinMarketCap, all of the top 10 stocks by market cap are falling as of the last 24 hours. The international price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.92% from the same time the previous day to $32,939.78, and Ethereum (ETH) fell by 7.30% to $1,969.68. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for the price of major stocks.
Analysis of major media and market experts <weakness>
The market reaction to the sell-off in the cryptocurrency market triggered by the Chinese government’s announcement of tightening crackdown on cryptocurrencies is largely the opinion that there is nothing new that Chinese banks and payment companies are suspending cryptocurrency-related businesses and the Chinese government’s Bitcoin mining As it was not expected that the crackdown would be so intensified, it seems to be divided by concerns about the uncertainty that the crackdown may continue. Whatever the case may be, Chinese investors are highly likely to cash out their cryptocurrency holdings, and it is highly likely that demand for Tether among stablecoins will decrease.
(Positive comments)
① Su zhu, CEO of global cryptocurrency investment fund Three Arrows Capital, said, “Many indicators are showing signs of continued development.” “The cryptocurrency bull run is not over yet. ‘ he claimed. He recently appeared on a podcast, diagnosing that “China’s mining crackdown and Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s tweets about Bitcoin energy use may have been part of the Bitcoin 50% collapse. There is demand,” he said. He added, “Many customers of Goldman Sachs, who recently announced the launch of Ethereum (ETH) futures and options products, see this downtrend as a good time to invest.”
② Cryptocurrency data analysis company Santiment tweeted, “Ethereum price fell below $1,900 on Monday (local time), but the top 10 Ethereum whale addresses excluding exchanges are increasing their holdings. On the other hand, the top 10 As the amount of Ethereum holdings in the exchange’s whale address is decreasing, the possibility of further selling of Ethereum is not high.”
③ Tim Draper, an American VC and early cryptocurrency investor, emphasized that Bitcoin is ‘the conclusion of finance!’ He explained that according to the Statista chart, Nigerians (34%) could have five times more Bitcoin wallets than Americans (5%). Tim Draper predicted that “when Americans see government-induced inflation, they will worship Bitcoin.”
④ Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy (MSTR), an American software company and Nasdaq-listed company, said on Twitter on the same day that he had purchased an additional 13,005 BTC for $489 billion. He explained that he had bought bitcoin for $37,617 each. As of June 21st, MicroStrategy has 105,085 BTC. The average purchase price is $26,080.
⑤ Robert Toru Kiyosaki, an economist and author of the best-selling book ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’, also tweeted on the 19th (local time), “The biggest bubble ever is getting bigger. The bubble will collapse soon.” “Wait for Bitcoin to drop to $24,000. When it crashes, it’s the right time to get rich.” In particular, famous crypto analyst PlanB analyzed that “Bitcoin could rise to $450,000 by the end of this year, and even in a ‘worst-case scenario’, it will rise to $135,000.”
⑥ PlanB, the first analyst to apply the ‘stock to flow’ model (Stock to Flow, S2F, an index dividing the total supply of scarce resources such as gold by the amount of resources produced annually) to Bitcoin, said on the 20th. “Bitcoin has dropped below $34,000 due to Elon Musk’s Energy Fud and China’s mining crackdown,” he tweeted. However, Bitcoin is expected to return to its previous highs of $47,000 in August and $63,000 in October, then reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 by the end of the year.”
(Negative Opinion)
① Joo Ki-young, CEO of on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant, expressed his view that the Bitcoin bear market appears to have been confirmed. He wrote, “I hate to say this, but it seems that the Bitcoin bear market has been confirmed” along with a graphic of the ‘Whale Coffee Chulsion Indicator’. “Too many whales are sending bitcoin to exchanges,” Joo wrote. However, Joo added that no single indicator can predict the future with certainty and that anything can happen in the cryptocurrency market.
② Jim Kramer, the host of CNBC’s ‘Mad Money’ program in the US, announced that he sold most of all his bitcoins. “We sold our assets due to concerns about the Chinese government’s regulation of the mining industry and the use of cryptocurrencies as a ransom in ransomware attacks,” he said.
③ PlanB, the first analyst to apply the ‘stock to flow’ (S2F) model to bitcoin, said, “Bitcoin is Elon Musk’s energy fud (FUD, Term) and China’s mining crackdown, the price dropped below $34,000.” “However, Bitcoin will return to its previous highs of $47,000 in August and $63,000 in October, then hit $98,000 in November and $135,000 at the end of the year. will do,” he predicted. He countered the bearish theory that $64,500 is the peak of the cycle, saying, “If we follow the best-case scenario, it could go as high as $450,000 in December.”
④ Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy (MSTR), an American software company and NASDAQ listed company, said, “The price of major cryptocurrencies has risen more than 300% over the past year, while gold and silver have risen 7 over the same period. “As an inflation hedge tool, Bitcoin outperformed gold by 50 times,” he said. “A number of investors, including billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, prefer to incorporate Bitcoin into their investment portfolios,” he said. “, he added.
⑤ David Roche, a global strategist at Independent Strategy, a British investment consulting firm, said, “I put bitcoin and gold in my portfolio to hedge against the weak US dollar.” “Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) will gain trust from investors in that they free them from central banks and policymakers,” said Roche strategist. , will be assets to own primarily,” he added.
⑥Barry Silbert, CEO of Digital Currency Group and founder of Grayscale, the world’s largest cryptocurrency manager, said, “This week is going to be a risky week.” dicey week)”. Earlier, Barry Silbert tweeted that “99% of cryptocurrencies are overvalued.”
⑦ On-chain data analysis company Glassnode said, “The number of addresses holding 32 ETH or more recorded 105,309, the lowest level in 21 months.”
“ETHUSDT perpetual futures can drop to the strong support of $1,750, and a bullish view prevails as long as it trades above that support,” said Shadi analyst at Wisebitcoin Research Center, a global cryptocurrency derivatives exchange. Long (Buy) Target is $2,000. Conversely, if the $1,750 level breaks down, it could drop to $1,700 and $1,650.”
Comprehensive analysis of bitcoin price <bearish>
The daily price of Bitcoin (see Figure 5-1), which plummeted due to bad news from China, rebounded sharply on the morning of the inflow of low-priced purchases, and then maintained an upward trend. The Bollinger Bands, which had technically deviated, have recovered, but have continued to strengthen, failing to exceed the highs formed in the morning, and are hesitant to rise further, suggesting that there is some limit to the buying momentum. However, if the rebound point on the daily chart is the point where the lower trend line continues, it is worth expecting an uptrend if it does not deviate from this point.
However, the market can easily find evidence for a bear market, and now is the time to prepare for a decline. The evidence that miners are continuing to sell out in large numbers due to the Chinese government’s mining ban can be seen in the on-chain indicator at the bottom of Figure 5-10, and the trend does not appear to change in a day or two. Looking at the analysis of the percentage of open interest in Bitcoin options on page 17, participants in the options market also expect the market to weaken in the short term, and the futures funding ratio of major exchanges is also expected to continue to decline (see Table 5-1).
Meanwhile, today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation as of 14:00, the expected payment prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum options are $33,000 and $2,000, respectively, at the current price level. was analyzed to be In addition, the market has very high expectations for both ups and downs, and although it is only two hours before expiration, the option premium is higher than in the morning, so it is expected that the price will move sideways to decrease it. Therefore, it would be advantageous to wait until 5 o’clock.
Technically, it is a good position for a short-term rebound, and one might judge it as such, but an open interest analysis of all options listed as of today consists of a position with a dominant short-term decline, and a put option is strong below the strike price. This is because, rather than buying and selling by looking at the price movement of a stock, it is more important to check the market trend. (For details, see ‘Bitcoin Options Open Ratio Analysis on the Day’ on page 15).
Binance BTC/USDT’s daily significant price change calculated by our quant program is $32,870. Since the current price of Bitcoin is located between the market price of the day and $32,870, it is possible to buy when the price of Bitcoin 1) recovers to $ 32,870 2) when the market price of the day is supported and rebounded. The stop-loss point for purchases is 1) when the breakout of the $32,870 breakout occurs, and 2) when the market price breaks off. A more detailed analysis based on market data can be found in ‘7. Please refer to the ‘Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Neutral>
As of 14:00 on the 22nd, both domestic cryptocurrency exchange Upbit and overseas exchange Binance showed that the overall technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin was ‘active sell’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 0 ‘buy’, 7 ‘sell’, and 0 ‘sell’ opinions out of Upbit’s oscillator indicators resulted in ‘active sell’ opinions, and the moving average indicator showed 0 ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ opinions. It was summarized as a ‘strong sell’ opinion with 12 ‘sells’.
On the other hand, if you look at the detailed items of Binance, 1 ‘buy’, 8 ‘sell’, and 0 ‘neutral’ oscillator indicators are sending a ‘active sell’ signal, while the moving average indicator has 0 ‘buy’. 12 cases, ‘sell’, were summarized as ‘active sell’.
Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index < bearish >
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated ‘fear and greed index’ dropped 13 points from the previous day (23) to 10, indicating the same ‘extreme fear’ stage as the day before. The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. The fear and greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mentions (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin market cap weighting (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. is calculated as
◇Comparison of returns by cryptocurrency (%) compared to the beginning of the year (as of 14:00 on June 22) <weakness>
Since last Thursday, the price of most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, has continued to decline, recording a sharp decline. Top stocks by market capitalization were no exception, but in the case of Dogecoin (DOGE), it fell by a whopping 2,041%. In addition, as individual stocks fall, stablecoins, which are hardly affected by the market, are entering the top 10 by market capitalization. Recently, Binance USD (BUSD) has risen to 10th, and Tether is currently in the top 10 by market capitalization. There are three stablecoins, along with (USDT) and USDC (USDC).
As of 14:00 on the 22nd, compared to the beginning of the year, Dogecoin (DOGE) ranked first with 3,353.87%, Binance Coin (BNB) came in second with 637.32%, Cardano (ADA) came in third with 595.53%, and Ethereum (Ethereum) ETH) ranked fourth with 166.23%, and Ripple (XRP) ranked fifth with 161.51%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the day’s trading volume <Neutral>
By analyzing the daily trading volume of on-chain data of BTC/USD and ETH/USD, it is easy to check the direction of the Bitcoin price and respond. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 show the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Bittrex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitBTC, Gemini), numbers 2 and 4 The indicator shows the direction of the market trend by calculating the total buying and selling quantity in real time and displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
In Figure 10, indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) shows a decrease in selling volume and a slight increase in buy trading volume in indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume), but the trend is still not strong. In addition, in terms of indicators 3 and 4, the market price is maintaining an upward trend due to the higher net buying volume on the day, but both stocks do not have large price volatility. However, as the direction of price volatility is upward, the market price on the day is not expected to be significantly pushed.
②Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>
As the price of bitcoin and ethereum fell and the kimchi premium rose, the gap between the two stocks reached a very close level. The crossover phenomenon has not yet occurred thanks to the fact that the Kimchi premium has not risen despite the sharp drop in prices of stocks, which is not unrelated to the recent decline in buying force in the market. Even if the premium does not increase, a crossover phenomenon occurs when the stock price falls, so it seems necessary to periodically check whether the two stocks cross. However, you don’t need to worry about the market going down in advance.
③Bitcoin holding balance analysis of all exchanges <Neutral>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the Bitcoin price. Despite the decline in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the balances of the two stocks on major exchanges did not change. Therefore, it seems necessary to periodically check that the balances of these stocks do not increase again.
◇ Analysis of the share of open interest in Bitcoin options on the day <bearish>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of open interest aggregated from all Bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Derrybit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts fell by 12.73% at 10:00 Although the position weight decreased slightly to 11.43% at 14:00, on a premium basis, at 10:00 (sell call option) 3.29% (fall): (buy put option) at 9.34% (fall) at 14:00 (sell call option) 2.43% (down): (Buy put options) There was no significant change at 9.93% (down), so option market participants were analyzed to expect a weakening of the Bitcoin price on the day.
<Neutral> In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of open interest aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the same day issued by the Derivit (DRBT) exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was 13.20% weak at 10:00 Although the position weight decreased slightly to 10.23% at 14:00, on a premium basis, 14.49% (fall): (buy put option) at 10 o’clock (sell call option): 1.93% (fall) at 14:00 (buy call option) 1.24% (upside): (buy put option) The premium of both options increases to 5.27% (downside), so the market does not deviate significantly from the current range to decrease the increased option premium rather than forming a direction until the expiration settlement time (17:00). It is expected that there will be irregular price movements.
◆Main Bitcoin futures status (as of 14:00 on the 22nd)
◆Deribit Bitcoin option status (as of 14:00 on the 22nd)
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