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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the weekly derivatives report, and how to interpret it?
Futures (Bitcoin)
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation overview
Last week (August 30-September 5), the market performance of Bitcoin that first fell and then rebounded during the week reappeared. This is the third consecutive week that the market has shown a similar performance, but it is different from the previous statistical cycle. Yes, the market closed up strongly in the latest statistical cycle, especially after the August monthly line closed, and continued to rise, and a long-term daily line with a considerable length was walked out last Sunday, and the price hit May 13 New highs since the day.
The total amount of liquidation in the market last week decreased slightly compared to the previous statistical cycle, but it remained relatively stable. The total amount of liquidation in the entire week fell from US$789 million to US$734 million. Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the concentrated liquidation volume by time period has not changed significantly. The 2-hour liquidation peak value continues to remain at about 50 million US dollars, except for the rapid decline at the beginning of the week and the accelerated rise at the weekend. Except for the relatively concentrated liquidation, no large-scale liquidation occurred in other periods. Although the market has maintained a certain degree of activity, the market sentiment has basically remained in a relatively stable state, and there has been no sharp drop and dive. This relatively stable liquidation result appears.
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
Last week, the average daily transaction value of Bitcoin futures contracts appeared on Friday, and the day’s transaction volume hit a new high since August 10. The previous relatively obvious downward trend in popularity has slowed down after entering September. However, it should be noted that during the weekend, the market volume once again experienced a sharp drop that was nearly half-cut. Considering that the market volatility during the weekend did not narrow down significantly, this relatively obvious “working day” trading habit may mean that recent market transactions The volume is largely contributed by “full-time traders”, which means that institutional investors occupy a very substantial share of the current derivatives market.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin futures holdings have officially recovered all the declines caused by the 5.19 crash. The current holdings have returned to the level of May 14th. The rapid rise in the recent period of time shows the overall participation enthusiasm The upward momentum is very obvious. Among them, Binance and FTX both saw a sharp increase of about US$600 million in open interest in the past week, contributing half of the total increase of about US$2.4 billion.
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Futures (Ethereum)
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation overview
The liquidation volume of Ethereum futures contracts has risen sharply in the past week. Compared with the data of the previous statistical cycle, the liquidation volume has increased by about double. The liquidation volume has rapidly increased from the low of US$256 million during the year to US$525 million. Among them, on the evening of September 1st, there was a situation where more than 100 million US dollars of liquidation occurred within 2 hours. This value has surpassed the liquidation extreme of Bitcoin in more than half a month in the two-hour time dimension. value.
It is worth mentioning that this peak occurred during the rapid rise of Ethereum, and based on the data of this period, the proportion of liquidated empty orders accounted for more than 93%. This means that after the continuous rise of Ethereum, the amount of funds that the market has bet on short-term corrections is considerable, and the rapid rise in the market has caused heavy losses to the funds of Boding.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts has increased compared with the previous statistical cycle. The trading volume of the two trading days last Tuesday and Wednesday hit a new high since August 9. However, compared with the highly active market in the second quarter of this year, there is still a relatively Big gap. It is worth noting that during the weekend, the trading volume also experienced a “half-cut” decline similar to that of Bitcoin. Therefore, the above-mentioned judgment of the increase in the proportion of institutional investors is basically applicable to Ethereum. In addition, the wave of high trading volume last Tuesday may also “lay the groundwork” for a wave of concentrated and large-scale liquidation on Wednesday.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
The Ethereum contract holdings continue to rise, and it has also recovered all the decline since the 5.19 crash. It has now returned to the historical peak level set on May 11 this year. The continuation of this kind of heat has also eased to a certain extent. The market is anxious about whether the slowdown in the rebound of open interest in the previous few statistical cycles means the end of the rally.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
Options (Bitcoin)
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Trading volume
The change trend of Bitcoin options trading volume last week showed a relatively regular performance, that is, the trading volume rose steadily in the first half of the week, and after reaching its peak on Friday, it fell sharply during the weekend. Among them, the transaction level of any trading day in the week can basically match the previous statistical cycle, so in fact, the change in the trading volume of the previous cycle is very limited. At present, there is still a significant gap between the extremely high activity of the post-5.19 market.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin option holdings hit a new high since the 5.19 drop. However, due to the highly active option market in the first half of the second quarter of this year, the current overall holdings still have a relative decline of about half compared to the high level at the beginning of the year. There will be no extreme changes in the market, and this rebound in open interest is expected to continue.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Volatility
In the latest statistical cycle, there has been little change in volatility, and the sharp drop in implied volatility in the first half of the week is more worthy of attention. Although the data rebounded over the weekend, the obvious drop in short-term data indicates that the market has strong orders for the Bitcoin market outlook. The expectation of side changes is not high, and this basically matches the market participation of the futures market “lying flat” presented above. The mainstream sentiment believes that Bitcoin is likely to remain high and sideways for some time in the future or continue the previous moderate rise momentum.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
PCR
The PCR data of position holdings has not changed much. The PCR data of trading volume showed a relatively obvious rebound first, indicating that the short-term market sentiment has improved. This is also relatively rare in the recent round of rising process. Following the trend, the short-term market bullish environment is much optimistic.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
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