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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the Derivatives Weekly Report, and how to interpret it?
Futures (Bitcoin)
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
Last week (August 16 to August 22) Bitcoin went out of a V-shaped reversal. The price of the currency fell sharply in the first half of the week and quickly stopped falling and reversed. In the next few trading days, it achieved full recovery of the previous decline. In the end, the week closed smoothly, which further refreshed the recent high level. The strong posture of the short-term market continued to be maintained in the past week.
The total amount of liquidation in the market last week was not much different from the previous week. The liquidation amounted to US$826 million throughout the week. Judging from the performance of time-sharing data, the market’s performance in two completely different styles during the week created a differentiated explosion. In the first half of the week, multiple orders have an absolute advantage, and short orders accounted for a clear advantage in the second half of the week. This is also more in line with the market trend. However, because the market runs relatively smoothly during the week, the two-hour level The peak value of immediate liquidation dropped significantly. The peak liquidation of positions within two hours of the week was only US$50 million, which was a drop of more than half compared to the peak performance of over US$100 million in the previous week. However, the market-oriented value of this relatively stable liquidation data has significantly weakened a lot.
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Bitcoin futures last week only steadily declined after a rebound at the beginning of the week. In the second half of last week, the value showed a very obvious stepped decline. On Sunday, the value hit a new low for nearly a month, and the market stopped falling and rising. It did not bring about a higher trading volume. Instead, the peak turnover last week appeared during the decline in the first half of last week. This phenomenon can be interpreted in two ways. One is that the market sentiment is too high, but it is believed that it is only suitable to pursue long orders after a callback occurs. The other is that the market is not optimistic about the continuity of short-term gains. Set out to try to do a reverse empty order layout. And if we look at the liquidation data, the peak liquidation during the week actually appeared in the process of price decline, and most of them were dominated by long orders, so this means that in the above two cases, the probability of the former is relatively high.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Contract holdings continue to rise steadily, but there is a noteworthy detail. After the market’s continuous correction at the beginning of last week, the holdings showed a short-term trough. During this wave of callbacks, the position in which direction appeared more obvious. Reduce holdings, is the short-term short order profit-making? Or is it more than a “panic” exit after a callback? These two situations are very important in deriving which side is the main position to increase the position, but due to the lack of more clues, it is impossible to make blind assumptions here.
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Futures (Ethereum)
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
The liquidation volume of Ethereum futures contracts further declined in the past week. The total liquidation volume in a single week fell from 521 million U.S. dollars to 343 million U.S. dollars, which was the lowest since the beginning of February this year. It is worth noting that such a low amount of liquidation in the Ethereum contract was mainly concentrated in the callback process in the first half of last week, and the liquidation amount decreased significantly during the rise in the second half of the week. This shows that the current Ethereum contract market is long. Accounted for the absolute main force.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts showed a more standard step-down trend last week. During the weekend, the single-day trading volume also refreshed the monthly low. The short-term market activity was low, and the continuous rise in the market made many parties dominate the ether. The current market for futures contracts is relatively strong.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
The rising pace of the Ethereum contract holdings has slowed down last week, and the horizontal operation has basically been maintained during the week. However, considering the continuous increase in the past period of time, the Ethereum contract holdings have reached the highest level since the 5.19 drop. Therefore, in line with the above analysis, the attitude of the participants in the Ethereum contract that “holding the currency to rise” has been further verified.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
Options (Bitcoin)
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Trading volume
Bitcoin options trading volume rose further last week. Last Friday, when the expiration amount was not large, the single-day trading volume almost approached the trading volume level on the expiration day of the monthly option contract at the end of last month, which shows that in the short term The market’s enthusiasm for participation in option products is rising. Compared with futures contracts, which are more difficult to control risk, options have shown quite high attractiveness when the market is fiercely competing for long and short positions.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin option holdings have further increased sharply, and the current options holdings have returned to the level before the 5.19 crash. Compared with the recovery speed of futures contracts, the high popularity of options in the recent period has made them “Curve overtaking” was realized.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Volatility
In the latest statistical period, the volatility data basically keeps running horizontally. Except that the implied volatility has dropped slightly during the market rise, no other information is given. However, the volatility of the implied volatility is also very limited. Therefore, it is only believed that this indicator indicates that the market generally expects that the market will not be highly likely to change in the next period of time. That is to say, it is more likely to be high and sideways or maintain a moderate rebound momentum in the short term. Even if there is a callback, a waterfall plunge The probability of occurrence will not be very high.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
PCR
The Bitcoin trading volume and open interest PCR in the past week rebounded briefly in the last statistical cycle, and then returned to the downward trend. The indicator still maintains a bearish direction so far, or from the perspective of the options market indicator , There is still a large amount of “strike-top” adversarial funds in the market.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
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