Written: 7
On February 6, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (January 27-February 2). In the latest statistical cycle, BTC rebounded by nearly $4,000, and it has appeared for a few hours in the statistical cycle. The astonishing rise of over 6,000 USD within this round of market sentiment (Musk’s Twitter changed his status to Bitcoin) led to a sharp rise in the market, but the price rebounded again in the latter part of the statistical cycle. The market has deviated from the relatively low around the 30,000 round number where the low volatility in the past statistical cycle was located, and has returned to above 35,000 US dollars.
The total number of open positions (total open positions) further dropped from 10,787 to 9,469 in the latest data, and this value has returned to below 10,000 after 15 weeks. It can be seen that the short-term price rebound has not quickly reversed the market’s bearish atmosphere, especially when the total open interest has continued to rise in the past few statistical periods. The current weekly report still shows a similar trend. Anxious market sentiment.
In terms of sub-data, large-scale asset management institutions have held 308 long positions unchanged, and continue to maintain the lowest level in the last 19 weeks set in the previous statistical period, while short positions continue to grow substantially, starting from 225 positions. The number rose to 357, a record high of nearly 24 weeks, but the short position overtook the long position for the first time after a lapse of five months. The long-short reversal of net positions of large institutions represented by asset management institutions is worthy of the market’s vigilance. The “emotional expression” of this net air-conditioning position is not weaker than the past two statistical cycles, which means that such accounts have already appeared in the market. Still pessimistic in the event of a rebound.
However, due to the delay in the release of the CFTC position report, judging from the market performance of the past few trading days, large institutions actually have a certain misjudgment regarding the short-term market in the recent period. However, considering that the market has not yet been able to formally break through and significantly shake off the current historical high level created about a month ago, does the partial air-conditioning warehouse of large institutions mean that it is very difficult for the market to make a further upward breakthrough? It will become a question worth considering for market participants for asset management institutions.
In the latest statistical period, the long position of leveraged fund accounts further dropped from 3,605 to 3031, which hit a new low in nearly 17 weeks, and the short position simultaneously dropped from 7,91 to 7,224, which hit a new low in nearly 16 weeks. Leveraged funds have carried out simultaneous long and short two-way lightening for the third consecutive week, and the reduction ratio of long positions is more significant than that of short positions. Therefore, such accounts have also continued the short attitude of the past few weeks in the latest statistical cycle.
In terms of large holdings, long positions further dropped from 2424 to 2008. This value was further away from the historical high set two weeks ago and set a new low of nearly 11 weeks. Short positions dropped from 364 to 161. For the second consecutive week, large accounts have been simultaneously reducing their holdings in both long and short directions. Such accounts also lack confidence in the existing rebound performance from the perspective of the performance of the adjustment. However, the difference from leveraged funds is that in the latest statistical cycle, the long-short position ratio of large accounts has tilted towards multiple positions after the adjustment. From this perspective, these accounts are relatively active compared to leveraged funds, but it is difficult to hide. The worries behind the substantial reduction.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions further dropped from 3176 contracts to 3,070 contracts, which hit a new low in nearly 12 weeks, and short positions decreased from 756 contracts to 651 contracts simultaneously. Although retail investors did not conduct net air-conditioning warehouses similar to those in the previous statistical cycle in the latest statistical cycle, the sharp reduction in long positions still means that such accounts are “shipping on the rebound”, and there is no concentrated bottom buying. try. For a category of accounts that are more susceptible to market changes, retail investors did not chase after the short-term jump caused by off-exchange news in the latest statistical cycle, which is a little surprising.
To sum up, in the latest statistical cycle, the four types of accounts almost unanimously expressed a lack of confidence in the market outlook. In particular, large institutions continue to increase their short positions. This has formed a problem for BTC, which continues to accelerate in the short-term. A serious departure between market sentiment and price performance. Is this kind of “adverse market” adjustment of positions a correct risk warning, or several types of accounts that will quickly restart to chase after the market continues to accelerate? This will be the most anticipated feature in the next weekly report.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What is the value? How to interpret it?
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, the articles published on this site only represent the author’s personal views, and have nothing to do with the position of ChainNews. The information, opinions, etc. in the article are for reference only, and are not intended as or regarded as actual investment advice.