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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the Derivatives Weekly Report, and how to interpret it?
Futures (Bitcoin)
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
Last week (July 5th to July 11th) the actual volatility of Bitcoin price was very limited. Although the price of Bitcoin rose first and then fell during the week, the limit volatility was also quite restrained. The weak atmosphere of the contract market continues to ferment, and it remains to be seen whether the pessimistic attitude expressed by contract market participants in the near future will change.
The total amount of liquidation in Bitcoin contracts on the main trading platform in the past week has further declined. The liquidation of the entire week has further decreased from US$870 million last week to US$763 million. The weekly liquidation volume has reached a new low in the year. The last time it was similar The performance goes back to the week of December 21 last year. Last week, only relatively concentrated liquidation occurred at 18:00 on July 5th and 14:00 on July 8th. The concentrated liquidation still occurred during the rapid decline of the market. The recent market performance has remained quite obvious. “Regularity.”
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
Last week, the Bitcoin futures trading volume experienced a short rebound at the beginning of the week and the continuity was poor, and returned to a continued downward trend in the second half of the week. The daily trading volume of US$27 billion on Sunday hit a new low in the year. The enthusiasm for participation in the futures contract market continues to decline. This low activity not only implies that the willingness to adjust positions on the market is not strong, but also means that the rate of inflow of external funds has been greatly reduced in the recent period.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin futures positions rebounded rapidly after a one-day drop of more than one billion U.S. dollars last Monday, and returned to near the average level of 11.5 billion U.S. dollars in the most recent period on Tuesday. In the next few trading days last week, There is almost no fluctuation in position data. The current futures holdings of more than US$1 billion are the same as last week, and they are still Binance, OKEx, Bybit, FTX and CME.
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Basis
Compared with last week, the current Bitcoin short-term contract basis data has shown more positive values. Weak shocks have led to the reappearance of bearish sentiment in the contract market, while mid- to long-term data still occupy a clear “dominant position”. “The contract investors’ bearish attitude towards the medium and long term continues.
Bitcoin futures contract basis, source: Skew
Futures (Ethereum)
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
Last week (July 5th to July 11th) the performance of the Ethereum market was significantly weaker than that of Bitcoin. After a wave of rapid decline in the early part of last week, the rebound of the market was very limited.
The total amount of liquidation in the Ethereum futures contract in the past week was 443 million US dollars, which was basically the same as the previous statistical cycle. During the sharp drop in the early part of last week, Ethereum experienced the worst concentrated liquidation of the week. In the two hours between 18:00 and 19:59 on July 5, there was a concentrated explosion of over 47 million U.S. dollars in Ethereum. This peak level has basically equaled the liquidation volume of Bitcoin during this wave of decline. The high popularity of Ethereum contracts accumulated in the past period of time also quickly fell into the cold after this round of sharp decline.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The change trend of the trading volume of Ethereum contracts is similar to that of Bitcoin. They all rebounded to a certain extent at the beginning of the week and then resumed the downtrend. During the past weekend, the market turnover hit a new low in the near future. The overall participation in the futures market has become hot recently. There has been a significant decline over a period of time.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
In the past week, the holding volume of Ethereum contracts continued the steady upward trend of the previous week. Although the sharp drop in last Monday caused a short and immediate fall in holdings in synchronization with Bitcoin, after the subsequent rebound, Ethereum The open interest of futures contracts in China once reached the level of 5.4 billion US dollars. Although the data fell slightly in the second half of last week, it still remained at the level of 5.2 billion US dollars. The weak volatility after the decline in the market did not trigger a further decline in open interest.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
Basis
Compared with the previous weekly report, the ratio of the basis of the Ethereum contract has further increased in the short-term negative value. After the weak area after the decline last week is strictly horizontally oscillated, the market is expected to “complement the rise” of Ethereum in the short term. Enhancement, considering that this is the second consecutive week that investors of short-term Ethereum contracts have expressed an overwhelming attitude, the overall sentiment of the current Ethereum futures market is relatively more optimistic.
Ethereum futures contract basis, source: Skew
Options (Bitcoin)
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Trading volume
There was a short-term rebound in the popularity of Bitcoin options trading last Thursday. Last Thursday, the single-day trading volume hit the second highest level since the beginning of July. However, in the next few trading days of last week, the situation “turned down sharply”. Bitcoin options on weekends The daily trading volume once again refreshed the low level of the year that was set in the next week. The trading volume of option contracts on other platforms other than Deribit has once again seen a particularly significant decline. Deribit is almost equivalent to the situation in the entire market. Reappear within the trading day.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin options holdings have not changed much. Although the data rebounded slightly in the second half of last week, the decline in the previous period of holdings has only been compensated for. The overall holdings remained highly stable after the “cliff decline” on June 25 The status of operation.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Volatility
Bitcoin’s short-term realized volatility continued to decline rapidly last week. The current 10-day level of data is approaching the low point of the year set in April this year. If the data goes down further, the possibility of changing the market will increase as a result. , Need to pay attention to risk prevention.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
Bitcoin’s multi-period implied volatility has continued to fall in the past week, and the continued volatility of the market within a narrow range has further weakened the market’s expectations of meeting changes in the short-term. However, it should be noted that this “consensus” weakness Concussion expectations will also make risks more difficult to control when unilateral market breaks out. Remember to maintain risk control thinking in a dull market environment.
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
PCR
In the past week, both the Bitcoin trading volume PCR and the open interest PCR have seen a relatively obvious rebound, especially the open interest PCR data has reached a performance of nearly a month high, which to some extent shows the clear bearish atmosphere in the previous period. There has been some loosening, and the rebound of trading volume PCR also shows a similar tendency. This is one of the few signs of overweight in the Bitcoin derivatives market last week.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
Option expiration
This week’s option expiration volume has further decreased compared with the previous two weeks. Only an option contract worth about 10,100 bitcoins expired on Friday, which further weakened its influence.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
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