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The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Last week (October 4th to October 10th) Bitcoin went out of a wave of rapid rise, and the current price of the currency has basically recovered all the decline of the sharp drop in mid-to-early May. The market has been in the past half a month. The continuity of the upward momentum is very satisfactory. At the same time, the price can stay at a relatively high level to repair the deviation indicator after the rapid rise. The disk performance is quite strong, and in this environment, the contract market will form a “unanimous bullish” The atmosphere is the key to this weekly report.
The total amount of liquidation in the market last week remained at a very low level. The total amount of liquidation in the whole week was US$339 million. Although it has risen from the US$250 million in the previous statistical cycle, it has been compared to two weeks ago. One data decline is still more than 60%, and the amount of liquidation in a relatively stable environment has dropped significantly. It is worth mentioning that in only two hours on the night of October 6, there was a concentrated liquidation of nearly 100 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 30% of the total liquidation in the past week. In addition, just as the “rule of liquidation” that we have been paying attention to before, the scale of liquidation that may be triggered during the rise of the market is significantly smaller than that of the big drop. Therefore, the rapid increase in the latest statistical cycle is not “destructive” to the contract market.
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Last week, the peak of market transactions occurred on Wednesday. A single-day transaction volume of US$72 billion that day hit a new high since September 25. However, the market activity has cooled in the following trading days, and after the rapid rise, it has a relatively stable high and sideways. The stimulus for futures contract investors is relatively limited. However, it is worth mentioning that there was a significant increase in market trading volume yesterday, with a single-day trading volume hitting the second highest point since October 2nd, and this is the same as the weekend trading volume has been very sluggish for a long time in the past. A big contrast is formed, especially when the currency price does not fluctuate significantly. There are not many suitable reasons for this “transition” to interpret. And whether the inertia of the weekend sluggish volume will change as a result, it is worthwhile Do continuous attention for a period of time to come.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
After a rapid rebound in the last week or so, Bitcoin futures positions have regained all the ground lost in the entire month of September, and now they have returned to the high point since the 5.19 crash that was created in early September. The market is rapidly The rebound has led to a rise in the popularity of market participation. At least in terms of holding performance, futures market participants are relatively more willing to open positions when the market performance is relatively strong. However, the inverted V reversal after the rebound in the first half of September led to the increase in holdings to this position is also a potential weak point. Whether history will repeat itself still needs to be treated with caution.
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Perpetual contract funding rate
In the process of rapid market rise, the proportion of multiple orders has increased significantly. This signal is very intuitive in the perpetual contract funding rate. During the week, the perpetual contract products of the major platforms have basically remained in the condition of overpaying and shorting. , Bokong’s capital ratio is actually very limited.
Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate, source: Skew
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
The liquidation volume of the Ethereum futures contract in the past week has further decreased. The liquidation volume for the entire week was only US$165 million. This value reached a new low during the year. Since the total amount is relatively limited, from the time-sharing data, the value of Ethereum in the past week Liquidation is relatively scattered, but it is worth mentioning that the time-sharing data shows that the proportion of Ethereum empty orders is relatively higher, which to some extent shows that market participants are relatively more short-selling attempts on Ethereum. “positive”.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
The trading volume of Ethereum contracts has not changed much compared with last week. However, the trading volume of last Sunday also increased significantly compared with that of Saturday. This is still highly synchronized with the trading volume of Bitcoin contracts. The market performance has opened a certain gap with most small and medium-sized currencies, but the linkage of the leading mainstream currencies has not really been destroyed, and the “homogenity” of the market still exists.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
The short-term relative growth rate of the position of the Ethereum contract is more obvious than that of the Bitcoin contract. The position of the Ethereum contract in the middle and late last week hit a new high in nearly one month, but it is currently compared to the history of the position of the Ethereum contract in the first half of September. There is still a significant gap at the high level.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Bitcoin options trading volume ushered in a peak in the middle of last week. Last Wednesday, the single-day trading volume hit a new high in nearly a month. The market activity has risen in the context of the market rebound. In addition, the trading volume of options on Sunday is compared In the past few weeks, there has also been a significant improvement.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Compared with the trading volume, the growth rate of option holdings in the first half of last week was even more impressive, while the data in the middle and late periods has stabilized at a relatively high level since mid-May of this year. The holdings have been obtained in the past half a month or so. With a doubling level of growth, the fiery atmosphere in the market in the first half of this year seems to have returned.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Neither the realized volatility nor the implied volatility has changed significantly in the latest statistical cycle, and the probability of substantial changes in the short-term is limited. In other words, from the perspective of market sentiment, most funds still believe that it is relatively narrow The lateral oscillations within the interval will be the main theme for a period of time in the future.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
Last week, the position PCR data once postponed the rise of the market, and there was a more obvious rebound. Among them, the more market-sensitive volume PCR indicator showed signs of rising, but it should be noted that the indicator has fallen sharply in the middle and late stages. , Although the current market still maintains high volatility, this may be a potential risk point that cannot be ignored.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
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