Pepe [PEPE] has retested a critical resistance level after slipping below the 78.6%: Up or Down?

• Pepe [PEPE] has retested a critical resistance level after slipping below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling continued bearish pressure.
• The loss of February’s lows has reinforced the downtrend, with sellers dominating the memecoin market.
• On the daily chart, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has remained flat, while the RSI has stayed below neutral 50, reflecting a persistent bearish trend.
• A hidden bullish divergence on the RSI suggests a potential bounce, but it is unlikely to be significant or immediate.
• The 4-hour chart shows a range formation, with a firm rejection at $0.00009, indicating bears remain in control.
• Support levels at $0.0000585 and $0.00007 could act as consolidation zones, while $0.00009 remains a key resistance level.

Pepe’s Struggle: A Bearish Market Dominates

Pepe [PEPE] has been caught in a relentless downtrend, with its price action reflecting the broader struggles of the memecoin sector. After slipping below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which was plotted based on its rally in the latter half of 2024, the token has faced mounting bearish pressure. The loss of February’s lows has only solidified this trend, as sellers continue to dominate the market.

The situation is not unique to Pepe. Across the memecoin sector, tokens have been grappling with similar bearish conditions, as market sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative. For Pepe, the retest of a key resistance level during a brief Sunday pump offered little hope for bulls. Instead, the price quickly reversed, forming a new lower low and continuing its downward trajectory. This persistent bearish momentum has left bulls with little room to maneuver, as the market remains firmly under the control of sellers.

Daily Chart Analysis: Weak Signals for Bulls

On the daily chart, the technical indicators paint a grim picture for Pepe. The On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling pressure, has remained relatively flat since late December. This lack of significant movement in the OBV suggests that spot trading volume has been low, further weakening the case for a bullish recovery. Interestingly, this retracement differs from the one observed between May and August 2024, during which the OBV experienced a more pronounced decline. While this could be seen as a minor positive for bulls, it is unlikely to provide much relief in the face of the prevailing bearish trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also been a consistent indicator of Pepe’s struggles. For most of 2025, the RSI has remained below the neutral 50 level, underscoring the token’s bearish momentum. Although a hidden bullish divergence has formed on the RSI in recent days, this type of divergence is typically weak and unlikely to result in a significant price reversal. The brief bounce over the weekend may have been a reflection of this divergence, but another immediate recovery seems improbable. Bulls will need to wait for stronger signals before attempting to regain control.

Short-Term Outlook: Range Formation and Key Levels

On the 4-hour chart, Pepe’s price action has been characterized by a range formation that developed toward the end of February. This range saw a deviation to the upside, with the price briefly retesting the $0.00009 resistance level before falling back below the range lows. The rejection at $0.00009 was decisive, signaling that bears remain firmly in control of the market. The OBV on this timeframe has also been hovering around local lows, further reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Traders should remain cautious, as the price action suggests limited upside potential in the short term. The mid-range level, which coincides with the low set on February 3, could act as a short-term target for any bullish attempts. However, the $0.0000585 support level to the south appears to be the next significant area of interest. This level could provide a temporary consolidation zone before the price makes its next move. For now, the lack of strong bullish momentum suggests that any recovery will likely be short-lived.

Liquidation Heatmap and Magnetic Zones

The liquidation heatmap provides additional insights into Pepe’s potential price movements. Notably, there are no significant liquidation levels below the current market price, which suggests that the token may consolidate around the $0.00007 level before making a decisive move. This zone could act as a temporary magnet for the price, offering a brief period of stability in an otherwise volatile market.

On lower timeframes, the $0.000073 zone has emerged as another magnetic area of interest. While this level could present a selling opportunity upon a retest, a 30% bounce from current levels appears unlikely. The $0.00009 resistance remains a critical barrier for bulls, and any attempt to break above it will likely face strong opposition from sellers. For now, traders should focus on the evidence at hand and prepare for further downside potential.

Conclusion

Pepe’s price action reflects the broader struggles of the memecoin market, with bearish pressure dominating the landscape. The loss of February’s lows and the rejection at $0.00009 have reinforced the downtrend, leaving bulls with limited options. While the daily chart shows some weak signs of a potential bounce, such as a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI, these signals are unlikely to result in a significant recovery.

In the short term, support levels at $0.0000585 and $0.00007 could provide temporary consolidation zones, but the overall outlook remains bearish. The $0.00009 resistance level continues to act as a formidable barrier, and any attempts to break above it will likely face strong selling pressure. As market volatility persists, traders should remain cautious and focus on key levels to navigate this challenging environment.