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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the Derivatives Weekly Report, and how to interpret it?
Futures (Bitcoin)
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation overview
Last week (July 26 to August 1) Bitcoin continued to rise, and the market continued its upward momentum in the previous week. The short-term market sentiment was further fermented. The market did not perform in the case of a V-shaped reversal. A clear bullish attitude, and after another week of rising, whether this sentiment will change will be the key point of this week’s report.
With the re-magnification of the market volatility, the total amount of liquidation in the last week has increased significantly. The total amount of liquidation in a single week has doubled from the previous week’s 1 billion US dollars to approximately 2 billion US dollars. 26th) The liquidation amount in one day reached 903 million US dollars, which has almost exceeded the total liquidation amount of the previous week. It is worth mentioning that there are about 600 million US dollars of short positions liquidation, and the liquidation on that day The amount also hit a new high since the 5.19 drop. The bearish sentiment accumulated by the previous weak performance was “ransacked” during the rapid rise at the beginning of last week. However, after this extreme liquidation occurred, the short-term market short-selling power will inevitably be weakened, which will further rebound the market. Will play a certain “protection” role.
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
Last week, the trading volume of Bitcoin futures also rebounded sharply with the rising market. The trading volume for the whole week reached 474 billion U.S. dollars, a record high in nearly one month, and it achieved a significant increase of over 70% compared with the previous statistical cycle. The price recovery has a very obvious stimulus effect on market activity.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Contract holdings rose first and then fell last week. After hitting a new high of nearly two and a half months, there was a significant drop in the second half of last week. The inverted U-shaped reversal in holdings led to a very limited increase in holdings throughout the week. This kind of market performance can be interpreted to a certain extent as the short-term market has been relatively “satisfied” with the current rebound in the market. A certain amount of capital has immediately profited after the rebound, and has not continued to increase bets on future upside potential. The sharply higher market volume combined with more “conservative” changes in open interest may mean that futures market participants have stronger expectations for the Bitcoin rebound to come to an end in the short term.
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Basis
The continued rebound of the market has not affected the recent situation that the basis of bitcoin contracts is generally positive. From the data of futures basis, the market still has strong expectations for the rebound so far, and it is generally believed that a new round of callback is about to start.
Bitcoin futures contract basis, source: Skew
Futures (Ethereum)
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation overview
Last week (July 25 to August 1) Ethereum’s disk performance was highly similar to that of Bitcoin, and both showed a continuous upward performance for a whole week.
The total amount of liquidation in the Ethereum futures contract in the past week was US$572 million. Although it has also risen, it has a limited increase compared with the US$437 million in the previous statistical cycle. The relatively moderate rise of Ethereum during the rapid rise at the beginning of last week made the overall market liquidation relatively limited.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts rose simultaneously last week, from 147 billion US dollars for the entire week to 184 billion US dollars. The data also reached a new high in nearly a month, but the increase in trading volume was also similar to that of Bitcoin. However, in the previous continued weak environment, the recovery of the activity of the Ethereum market is obviously not as fast as that of Bitcoin.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
The Ethereum contract holdings have also risen first and then fell in the past week. However, the more interesting point is that the decline of the Ethereum contract holdings is relatively small, which basically preserves the increase in the holdings in the first half of the week, and the short-term market rises. The “retention” of funds in the Ethereum market is more optimistic, but this is also because the initial base is relatively limited.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
Basis
The basis of the Ethereum contract has not changed much. Contract investors continue to have a bearish outlook for the market outlook, and the market still has reservations about the prospect of further price increases.
Ethereum futures contract basis, source: Skew
Options (Bitcoin)
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Trading volume
The trading volume of Bitcoin options rose sharply last week. Compared with the previous statistical cycle, there has been a nearly double growth performance. The expiration of monthly contracts has contributed to this short-term rise in activity to a certain extent, but the strong market has also allowed the market. More people pay attention to the option products that are easier to improve the utilization rate of funds.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin options holdings have dropped significantly. Although the market volume has risen sharply after the expiration of the monthly contracts, the positions for covering and swapping positions are not enough to erase the expiration level of last Friday. However, it is also not recommended for this reason. This decline in open interest is over-interpreted, and the obvious signs of recovery in open interest in the next week will determine the short-term market’s choice of options products.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Volatility
In the latest statistical cycle, the overall performance of the volatility indicator was stable. The steady rise in the market has significantly slowed the fluctuation of this sentiment indicator. The current volatility indicator can provide very limited guidance information, and the data is of little value this week.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
PCR
In the past week, Bitcoin trading volume PCR and open interest PCR continued to decline simultaneously. Among them, open interest PCR once again hit a new low during the year. This indicator has now reached a relatively extreme level in the medium and long term, which means that the market is expected to stop rising and falling in the short-term. Further enhancement, the prospects for the market to rise further are not optimistic.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
Option expiration
The amount of options expiring this week has dropped sharply. After the month change, the expiration volume of Bitcoin options contracts this Friday is only 15,400, which is expected to have little impact.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
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