The news that Evergrande Group once hired Ren Zeping, chief economist of Founder Securities with a high salary, detonated the Internet. After opening old pictures on the Internet, after three years, I still feel the gap between beating workers and beating workers.
Ren Zeping has said many interesting theories, but one theory has only three sentences. The summary of these three sentences is quite in place:
Look at finance in the short term, land in the medium term, and population in the long term.
It is clear and clear that Bitcoin’s currency price logic is also the same:
Look at finance in the short term, supply in the medium term, and population in the long term.
Let me briefly describe Mr. Ren Zeping’s three-sentence theory:
Short-term look at finance
In the real estate field, finance usually affects two aspects. One is the demand side: the short-term refers to the change in the payment ability of buyers to a certain extent through measures such as interest rates and charging ratios under the background of my country’s overall policy. This will change in different provinces and regions. Another aspect is the supply side: for example, tightening the loan amount and loan time of real estate companies. For similar cases, you can refer to Wanda’s recent “brother break” situation.
Supply in the medium term
It usually takes 2 years from land supply to real estate development, and there is also a long time from development to delivery. The supply of land determines the housing price. Here you can refer to the real estate development in Hong Kong.
Long-term look at population
As the name suggests, look at the net inflow and outflow of population-this is the case for a certain city. If you look at the general trend, you look at my country’s urbanization rate.
The urbanization rate is lower than 55%, the population is shifting from rural to urban areas, the urban population is expanding, and the manufacturing industry is booming; the urbanization rate is between 55% and 70%, and the growth of some small and medium-sized cities slows down, while the proportion of the population in the metropolitan area Continue to rise, this stage is accompanied by the decline of the manufacturing industry and the relative development of the service industry. The urbanization rate exceeds 70%, the population continues to be concentrated in metropolitan areas, the population growth of small and medium-sized cities is slow, and the service industry continues to develop.
Back to the field of encrypted assets led by Bitcoin.
Short-term look at finance
This is different from real estate. It does not refer to borrowing interest rates, but refers to actions in the financial sector. Especially today in 2020, looking at the consensus and operation of institutional investors, everyone knows this example. The trust products of Grayscale Company, known as Pai Yao, can only access BTC. Constantly publicizing-buying coins and telling everyone is the best publicity. For example, five days ago, Bridgewater Fund Ray Dalio (Lei Nerlio, author of the book “Principles”) publicly developed a Twitter statement about Bitcoin “I might miss something.” Then Bloomberg also reported the matter.
Is Crypto Finally Going Mainstream? (Will encrypted assets enter the mainstream?), and the so-called mainstream refers to institutional investors. The Bridgewater Fund led by Erlio has mediocre performance this year, which may be one of the reasons why he pays attention to Bitcoin again. On the Internet, it is said that Erlio has been beaten in the face, but I feel that it is the courage to admit that I did not understand it as a hero. It is courageous to admit that I missed something about Bitcoin and publish it publicly.
Take Bridgewater Fund as an example. The scale of funds under management is about 150 billion U.S. dollars, and it changes every quarter, basically at this magnitude. Grayscale has just reached 10 billion U.S. dollars in management funds. Many times. Only when funds like Bridgewater start to buy Bitcoin will it push Bitcoin to a further high.
Supply in the medium term
It is easier to understand here. For example, the halving market directly stimulates the reduction of supply. Bitcoin is a currency with short-term inflation and long-term deflation. Some people will say that every day new circulation is generated by mining machines and mining, how can it be simply deflation?
It just means that the growth rate of circulation has slowed down, and about 900 BTC are generated every day (1800 BTC before the halving in May 2020). The number of bitcoins produced globally every day is a theoretical value. After the elongation cycle, the daily supply is 900 BTC.
The analogy of real estate is land and houses. The supply is increasing, but the increase is far behind the demand.
What Mr. Ren Zeping said “looking at land in the medium term” has two meanings: one is land policy, and the other is land and real estate supply, which is of course also affected by policy. The supply of Bitcoin is not affected by policy. It is halved in four years and is affected by the time period. However, the transaction of Bitcoin is also affected by policy to some extent. Therefore, in the medium term, there are two levels of supply. meaning.
Long-term look at population (flow)
Looking at the population in the long-term, it refers to the population that comes to participate in Bitcoin investment, blockchain-related industries, and concepts. Simplified understanding is traffic.
Why does Bitcoin rise? The basic principle is that supply exceeds demand. Someone buys it, and some organizations buy it. The more you buy, the more you increase. But why should institutions buy? Because there are a large number of retail investors, large investors, and institutional support-that is, consensus. The sign of a high degree of consensus is the large number of currency holders. This is a traffic business. The number of people who hold currency addresses in the world does not participate. First, one person can have many addresses; second, multiple people can also use one address. For example, many people’s coins are placed in a centralized transaction. So, such as Coinbase and Huobi, for example, if multiple people use a multi-signature wallet, the number of users will be much less if the number of addresses is used to count. However, when there is no reliable data, some growth or decay trends can be seen by using the number of active addresses and the total number of addresses.
There are more than 1 million active addresses worldwide, and the total number of addresses is more than 30 million. There are millions of people who have participated in Bitcoin investment, and tens of millions of people should have participated. As a single investment category, if Bitcoin is regarded as a stock, the number of participants of 10 million people is really too much. Therefore, the value evaluation of Bitcoin is difficult to compare with the market value of a large company in the traditional field. Few company stocks are held by millions of people.
The number of shares held by Fosun Pharma was 324,800 last quarter.
However, the comparison data is not too exaggerated. Assuming (even if) millions of people have BTC (no matter how many, 0.000001BTC accounts are also included), it is not too much for an investment target called subversion/revolution. So it’s really still early days.
An excellent theory has two requirements. First, be able to accurately judge the future; second, be concise enough.
Such theories include the three laws of Newton’s mechanics in physics, three sentences from the real estate industry’s Ren Zeping summing up the trend of real estate prices, and three sentences from Bitcoin today:
Look at finance in the short term, supply in the medium term, and population in the long term.
Of course, all the expositions are not as important as these 15 words. Readers can burst out more ideas and details on this basis, and can query more detailed data.
From this point of view, in the long run, Bitcoin is still in its early stage. In the mid-term, it is good to see the halving in May 2020. In the short-term, financial institutions also appear to enter the market, which is good. The currency price is far from the so-called top.
