Restore the market before the May 19 crash | CFTC COT cryptocurrency holdings weekly report

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CME Bitcoin Futures

On May 22, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (May 12 to May 18). During the latest statistical period, the price of BTC fell by more than $14,000. It is worth mentioning that after the end of the statistical period The first trading day was “May 19,” which is worthy of being included in the history of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the sharp decline in the latest statistical cycle is actually just a prelude to the eruption of bearish sentiment in the market, and whether various accounts are prepared for the market plunge in this context is the key to this weekly report.

The total number of positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 8,469 to 9,522. Although the market continues to decline, after more than a month of continuous lightening of positions, the market’s participation has rebounded. .

In terms of sub-data, the largest dealers’ long positions have further increased from 516 to 572, short positions have fallen from 113 to 96, and long and short two-way (hedged) positions have further fallen from 131 to 69. Large institutions unexpectedly carried out net-long position adjustments during the latest statistical cycle. Compared with the two-way simultaneous increase of long and short positions of such accounts before the last wave of rapid decline, the amount of such accounts before the 5.19 crash Net long position adjustment is a more “wrong” operation, and the “bad luck” of such institutional accounts in the past period of time has continued.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

Asset management institutions’ long positions further increased from 383 to 393, and short positions rebounded from 910 to 1085. This value rebounded after a short period of time last week and hit a new record high again. Two-way holdings plummeted from 112 to 0 . Asset management agencies have simultaneously increased their long and short holdings in the latest statistical cycle, but it is worth mentioning that the short positions of such accounts have once again hit a record high, so compared to the performance of the adjustment in the previous statistical cycle In the latest statistical cycle, the attitude of asset management agencies has turned vacant, and they have made correct judgments before the market experienced extreme diving.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts rose sharply from 2,319 to 3279, the short positions rose from 5,419 to 6,136, and the two-way position further rose from 502 to 644. Leveraged funds have once again increased their positions by a large margin in the latest statistical cycle. However, it is worth noting that although the current headroom status of the total positions of such accounts has not changed, after the adjustment of positions in the latest statistical cycle, more The proportion of single positions has risen significantly, so such accounts are also not keenly aware of the risk of extreme declines after the end of the statistical period.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions further increased from 2154 to 2403, short positions simultaneously increased from 292 to 339, and two-way positions further increased from 114 to 226. In the latest statistical cycle, large accounts have once again increased their holdings in multiple positions simultaneously. This type of account has not made a particularly clear unilateral judgment in the past two statistical periods. The continuous decline in the market has made this type of account that have previously accurately predicted the decline also began to hesitate. For the big decliners on 5.19 Did not make too many active preparations.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail holdings, long positions dropped from 2,237 contracts to 1,936 contracts, which reached a 45-week low. The last similar performance was traced back to mid-July last year. Short positions rose from 876 contracts to 927 contracts. Retail investors have once again become the biggest winners in the market. Before the May 19 crash, they reduced their long positions and made net air-conditioning warehouse performance enough to make this group of people who are often “underestimated” by the market exalted, and the market plummeted. The rapid spread of panic caused by such investor groups has helped retail investors to carry out risk control earlier.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

CME Micro Bitcoin Futures

On May 3 this year, CME officially launched the Micro Bitcoin futures (MBT) contract. The MBT contract size is one-tenth of a Bitcoin, which is convenient for market participants to fine-tune Bitcoin exposure and enrich the flexibility of trading strategies. So far, the micro-bitcoin futures contract’s position data has been updated for three weeks. Due to the substantial increase in the contract’s position in the latest statistical cycle, this new futures contract will be officially covered from this weekly report.

The total number of open positions (total open positions) in the latest data has skyrocketed from 2,965 to 32,865. Compared with the position data in the previous two statistical periods, this newly launched contract in the latest statistical period is considered true In a sense, it has attracted the attention of the market. However, since a single micro futures contract only represents 0.1 BTC, compared with an ordinary contract that represents 5 BTC, the current holdings of this type of contract are expected to have a very large increase. space.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of sub-data, long positions of the largest dealers dropped from 25 to 0, short positions soared from 298 to 9,231, and long and short two-way (hedged) positions remained unchanged at 0. The dealer account’s idea of ​​adjusting positions in micro bitcoin futures is completely different from the idea of ​​bitcoin futures mentioned above. This type of account in micro bitcoin futures has a clear net air-conditioning position, and this type of account uses micro bitcoin futures to a certain extent. Realize risk control on the above.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

The asset management institution’s long positions remain unchanged at 0 contracts, the short positions remain unchanged at 0 contracts, and the two-way positions also remain unchanged at 0 contracts. Asset management agencies have not yet deployed micro bitcoin futures.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of the leveraged fund account soared from 1042 to 27406, the short position soared from 2812 to 19344, and the two-way position dropped from 1009 to 452. Leveraged funds have significantly increased this type of new futures contract products in the latest statistical cycle. Because the data has changed greatly, the reference value has been discounted. However, it should be noted that this type of account has significantly increased the holdings of long positions during the adjustment process. Considering the sharp decline that occurred after the end of the statistical period, this type of account actually misjudged the direction of the short-term market. .

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions rose from 1547 to 1950, short positions rose from 477 to 946, and two-way positions rose from 0 to 69. The increase in holdings of large accounts in the latest statistical cycle is relatively limited, and there is no substantial increase in holdings of more than 10 times like the above-mentioned types of institutional investors, and the increase in holdings of long and short positions is also relatively similar. Therefore, this type of futures The reference value of the contract data change range is limited.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail holdings, long positions rose from 1,580 to 2,988, and short positions rose from 607 to 2,525. The increase in short holdings of retail investors on micro bitcoin futures is also very obvious. The huge difference between the long and short two-way positions in the last statistical period has been basically smoothed out. The overall short judgment of retail investors before the 5.19 drop is clear. , The acuity for this round of market risk is quite commendable.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

CME Ethereum Futures

On May 19, ETH also experienced a waterfall-like decline. However, considering that the decline of ETH in the latest statistical cycle was greater than that of BTC, the market’s bearish warning before extreme diving occurred was clearer than that of BTC. Under this background Whether various accounts are more active towards partial air-conditioning is the main focus of the current Ethereum futures adjustment performance.

The number of total positions (total open positions) rose from 2,157 to 2,969 in the latest data, and the previous continuous decline of this value has come to an end.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of sub-data, long positions of the largest dealers rose from 0 to 2, short positions slightly decreased from 42 to 41, and long and short two-way (hedged) positions rose from 0 to 38. Theoretically speaking, the adjustment of the dealer’s account in the latest statistical period is a net long position adjustment, but because the change is very limited, the impact of this position adjustment can basically be ignored. The current position of this type of account is short position Still occupy an absolute advantage, so this type of account did not take too much risk when the crash occurred.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

Asset management institutions’ long positions remained unchanged at 0, short positions rose from 70 to 84, and two-way positions rose from 10 to 14. The asset management agency conducted a net air-conditioning warehouse in the latest statistical cycle, conducted a very accurate risk prediction before the plunge, and realized positive returns with the help of empty orders.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts further increased from 1,123 to 1,332, the short positions increased from 2,089 to 2,264, and the two-way positions rose slightly from 106 to 109. Leveraged funds have once again carried out a multi-directional simultaneous position increase, and the increase of the long and short two-way positions is basically the same. Under the situation that the short position holdings are obviously dominant, this kind of position increase will occur at the time of the big drop. The resulting “negative impact” is relatively controllable.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions fell from 405 to 383, short positions rose from 44 to 52, and two-way positions fell from 19 to 4. Large accounts have carried out long-lost net air-conditioning positions in the latest statistical cycle. With the continuous rise of ETH in the past period of time, the large accounts have also changed their thinking about adjusting positions very quickly, although the current long positions of such accounts are still far more than Short positions, but the adjustment of positions in the latest statistical cycle is already a positive risk control operation.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail holdings, long positions fell from 1,180 to 1087, and short positions fell from 463 to 363 simultaneously. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors have carried out a two-way simultaneous lightening of long and short positions. Although they have not made the same margin adjustments as the BTC futures contracts mentioned above, the lightening operations performed by retail investors on ETH are also a kind of “no fault” wind. Control selection.

| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Holding Weekly Report

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What is the value? How to interpret it?

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